Russian Bluff Called

Nato calls Russia on bluff in Vienna. The conference ended without agreement on any of Russia’s demands, each of which challenged in one way or another the post-Soviet status quo in Europe.

President Vladimir Putin had threatened on April 26 to suspend unilaterally Russia’s compliance with the CFE Treaty (the 1990 original and the 1999 unratified adaptation) unless the treaty was changed in Russia’s favor and further concessions were made to Russia on the balance of forces beyond the treaty itself.

Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergei Lavrov and First Deputy Prime Minister Sergei Ivanov (defense minister until recently and Putin’s heir apparent at the moment) followed up during May and early June with similar threats of a “moratorium” on Russia’s compliance. Russia would, in that case, unilaterally withdraw from the CFE Treaty’s system of mutual verification and inspections of forces, exchanges of information, and pre-notification of military movements.

According to Russia’s chief delegate, Anatoly Antonov (AP, International Herald Tribune, June 15-17), “If no further results are achieved, then a moratorium could become more of a possibility. We want to see some serious talking take place. This Conference was neither a tragedy nor the end of the story.” Nevertheless, Russia’s position as summarized by Antonov in the wake of the forum remains that the 1999 CFE Treaty has “become meaningless, is no longer viable” and that Russia wants to “re-establish the treaty’s viability” -- some of the code-words for re-writing the treaty in Russia’s favor. Pending this, Moscow’s declared first-priority goals remain that NATO countries ratify the treaty by July 2008 while Russian troops remain in Moldova and that the three Baltic states sign the ratified treaty (Itar-Tass, RIA-Novosti, June 15, 16).

The threats as well as the trade-off tactics failed demonstrably at the Vienna Conference. Nevertheless, Moscow may persist with its trade-off tactics in upcoming negotiations, including Putin’s informal meeting with U.S. President George W. Bush at Kennebunkport, Maine, where Putin can undoubtedly add the issues of Iraq, Iran, and North Korea to his deck of bargaining cards.

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